Africa has a growing opportunity to attract energy investment and strengthen long-term economic resilience as geopolitical tensions reshape global capital flows, the head of Africa Fuels & Refining at S&P Global, Stanislas Drochon, has said.
Speaking to CNBC Africa, at Nigeria Oil and Gas Energy Week 2026 in Abuja, Drochon said recent supply shocks and market disruptions have underscored a central lesson for policymakers and investors alike: energy security is increasingly inseparable from national security.
His comments come at a time when governments across Africa are seeking to balance export ambitions with domestic refining, storage development and broader industrial expansion, while also competing for a larger share of global oil and gas investment.
Drochon argued that periods of crisis including supply crunches, surging prices and threats to major shipping chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz reveal the strategic value of domestic energy infrastructure.
In his view, countries with large refining systems, storage capacity and diversified supply channels are better positioned to shield their economies from external shocks.
That dynamic has become especially relevant for Nigeria, which he said is demonstrating to the region, and potentially to the wider world, the value of leveraging local energy resources through domestic processing and strategic reserves.
He pointed to the country’s major refining build-out, including what he described as the world’s largest single-train refinery, as evidence of how infrastructure can provide a cushion against volatility in global markets.
According to Drochon, refining capacity alone is not enough. Strategic storage, import capacity and active market participation by multiple traders are also critical in preventing overreliance on foreign supply. Together, these assets can reduce import dependence, support supply continuity and enhance a country’s crisis preparedness.
“The crisis is teaching us that in reality, energy security is a matter of national security,” Drochon said during the interview. He added that while affordability and sustainability remain essential goals, energy security must come first when nations are confronted with acute supply threats.
His framing reflects what he called the “energy trilemma” — the need to balance security, sustainability and affordability. Yet in the current environment, he suggested the hierarchy has shifted, with governments placing greater emphasis on securing reliable access to energy even if that comes at a higher cost or requires a more gradual transition pathway.
For African governments, that means policy should focus on enabling investment that can simultaneously improve supply security, generate employment and create broader economic benefits. Drochon said the emergence of new refining capacity in Nigeria, alongside plans to expand it further, suggests a degree of alignment between policymakers, regulators and private-sector investors.
That alignment is crucial because large-scale energy projects are capital intensive and depend heavily on a supportive business environment. In Drochon’s assessment, private capital will invest only where the regulatory framework is sufficiently stable, returns are visible and project risks are manageable. Nigeria’s ability to bring major refining infrastructure on stream, he said, signals that capital can be mobilized when those conditions are in place.
He also said such investments can have spillover benefits beyond energy supply itself, including job creation, foreign-exchange earnings and new business opportunities for local communities. In that sense, domestic refining and associated infrastructure are not only supply-side assets but also tools for industrial development and macroeconomic strengthening.
Beyond Nigeria, Drochon sees a broader opening for the African continent as investors reassess risk across traditional energy-producing regions. Heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East, he said, is likely to increase the perceived risk premium attached to that market compared with just a few months ago.
If capital that might previously have flowed into the Middle East is redirected elsewhere, African producers could emerge as beneficiaries — provided they move quickly to position themselves as credible alternatives. Drochon named countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Namibia and South Africa as potential destinations, while noting that global investors will also weigh opportunities in the U.S., Guyana, Suriname and Brazil.
The implication is that African countries are not operating in a vacuum. They are competing in a global contest for upstream, midstream and downstream investment, and must work to distinguish themselves through policy clarity, lower above-ground risk and investor-friendly operating conditions.
To capture that opportunity, Drochon said African states need to “de-risk” themselves in the eyes of global investors. That includes improving the perception of the investment destination as well as addressing actual operational and policy risks. He argued that the continent has long faced what he called a “prejudice premium,” where investor assumptions have at times overstated the risks of doing business in Africa relative to conditions on the ground.
That assessment is particularly important at a moment when patient capital remains selective. Investors are looking for credible governance, regulatory consistency, project bankability and visible infrastructure that supports reliable operations. In other words, the next wave of capital may not simply chase resource potential; it will likely favor markets that can demonstrate execution and resilience.
Drochon also linked Africa’s energy investment case to the digital economy. As demand grows for data centers and AI-related infrastructure, he said the continent should view these sectors as a strategic new market. Data centers are highly energy-intensive, requiring dependable power supplies that many African energy systems are still building toward.
For countries such as Nigeria, however, that challenge could become an advantage. Drochon highlighted the country’s gas resources, solar potential and hydro capacity as foundations for expanding power generation not only for households and industry, but also for digital infrastructure. In his view, supporting data centers and related facilities is not merely an economic opportunity but also a matter of sovereignty and national security.
That argument broadens the energy debate beyond oil exports or refinery economics. It suggests that energy infrastructure can underpin a wider development agenda spanning industrialization, technology and strategic autonomy.
As global energy markets absorb the effects of conflict, supply uncertainty and changing capital allocation, the message from Abuja was clear: Africa’s resource base alone will not be enough. Countries that build infrastructure, improve storage, align policy with private investment and present a more accurate risk profile may be best placed to capture the next wave of energy capital.
For Nigeria specifically, the challenge now is to convert recent momentum in refining and energy infrastructure into a durable platform for regional leadership — one that enhances supply security at home while making the country a more compelling destination for global investors.
