Every year, we go through the same ritual. The rains come. The rivers rise. The Lagdo Dam in Cameroon opens its gates because it always opens its gates, usually without adequate warning, and the communities downstream drown. We count the dead, we count the displaced, we count the houses swallowed by water, and then government officials arrive in SUVs with relief materials and promises. The camera rolls. Statements are issued. And then we wait for next year to do it all over again.
This has been Nigeria’s flood management strategy for as long as most of us can remember. It has been reactive, performative, and completely inadequate.
So when the National Economic Council last Thursday approved N83.21 billion for the Anticipatory Action Task Force a body set up specifically to respond to flooding and climate emergencies before they occur the word that was used to describe the decision deserves attention. Proactive. Cross River State Governor Bassey Otu said it himself: “This is the first time, as a nation, that we are taking proactive steps.” And Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang echoed him: “It is commendable that this particular year… we are being proactive for the first time.”
First time. Twenty-seven years into civilian rule, after floods have killed thousands of Nigerians, displaced millions more, and destroyed farmlands and livelihoods across almost every geopolitical zone in this country, 2026 is apparently the first time we are being proactive about it. That sentence should stop every Nigerian in their tracks.
Mind you, I am not going to pretend that the NEC decision is not a step forward. It is. Moving from purely post-disaster relief to anticipatory action is the correct direction. The science of disaster risk reduction has been clear for decades: early action is cheaper, faster, and saves more lives than emergency response after the damage is done. The Anticipatory Action Task Force concept is grounded in good policy thinking, and the N83.21 billion, representing half of the N166.42 billion the AATF requested, is at least a start. The council has said it will evaluate and make additional provisions as the situation develops.
The Lagdo Dam problem is particularly instructive because it is among the most predictable disasters in the country. The dam exists. It has a finite capacity. When that capacity is reached, the water has to go somewhere, and it goes into Benue, Kogi, Anambra, Delta and several other states downstream. This is not new information. Nigeria has been aware of the risk posed by the Lagdo Dam since it was commissioned in the 1980s. Our governments have been talking about building a dam at Dasin Hausa in Taraba State for well over 30 years to serve as a buffer. Thirty years of talking. Meanwhile, Governor Mutfwang is now saying Plateau State is building reservoirs to manage the flooding. Good for Plateau. But why is it left to individual states to solve a problem that requires a national infrastructure response? Why is the Dasin Hausa dam still on paper in 2026?
The agro-export presentation at the same NEC meeting is equally telling. Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke disclosed that crude oil accounts for 80 per cent of Nigeria’s export revenue, while an estimated $50 billion in annual agro-export potential sits untapped largely because Nigeria is not compliant with International Ship and Port Facility Security code requirements affecting six major crops, including sesame, ginger, soybean and cashew. Fifty billion dollars. Sitting there. Waiting. Because our ports cannot meet basic international security standards. Vice President Kashim Shettima said it plainly: “We cannot continue to export raw materials and import finished prosperity.” He is right. But that observation is not new either. Nigeria has been told this, in various forms, by every development economist who has ever looked at our trade profile. The question is always the same: what are we actually going to do about it, and by when?
The council directed the Chairman of the Nigerian Agro Export Setup Committee to meet with the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council to fine-tune the proposal. Fine-tune. For a $50 billion opportunity that has been sitting there for years. How long does fine-tuning take in Nigeria? We need deadlines, not directions to the committee.
The pattern we keep repeating in this country is one of correct diagnosis and delayed prescription. We identify the problems accurately, including flood vulnerability, crude export dependency, weak infrastructure, and post-disaster rather than pre-disaster spending. We set up task forces, establish committees, and approve frameworks. And then implementation crawls at a pace that makes the original emergency worse. Nigeria is not short of good ideas. It is short of execution culture.
The Vice President’s remarks at the meeting were among the most honest spoken at a NEC session in a while. He described the economy as a workshop and asked plainly whether the work was taking shape. That is the right question. It deserves an honest answer, not the ceremonial back-patting that usually follows these meetings, but a sober assessment of what has actually been delivered. The Tinubu administration is past its third year in office. The reform agenda is real. The pain of the reforms is equally real. Millions of Nigerians are still feeling the full weight of petrol subsidy removal and naira devaluation. The people are waiting for the upside. Patience has its limits.
The question of agricultural exports cuts to the heart of the kind of economy we want to build. Sesame seeds, ginger, soybeans, and cashews are crops Nigerian farmers already produce in significant quantities. The constraint is not on the farm. It is at the port. It is in the compliance gap with international security standards that our competitors in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Ghana have largely closed while we are still fine-tuning proposals in committee. Every month we delay, we cost our farmers real money. It costs foreign exchange we desperately need. The Vice President is correct that a nation that cannot move its goods has imprisoned its farmers.
Approving a national agro-export board is useful. Giving it a 90-day implementation mandate with public reporting would be better. Giving it teeth to override bureaucratic bottlenecks at ports would be better still. Let us see whether the appointment and mandate of that board reflect the urgency the situation demands, or whether it becomes another fine-tuning exercise.
There is also the question of resources. The Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning told the council that as of June 17, the Excess Crude Account stood at $535.82 million, the Stabilisation Account had N79.06 billion, and the Natural Resources Development Account held N200.69 billion. The AATF requested N166.42 billion for its full flood intervention programme, but the council approved only half, N83.21 billion, due to available resources.
The National Regional Development Policy 2026-2030, which was also tabled at the meeting, promises a coordinated framework for balanced development across Nigeria’s regions and includes a proposed Regional Development Bank. Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf said it aligns with the Medium-Term National Development Plan. These are sensible frameworks on paper. But Nigeria is not short of frameworks; we produced the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, Vision 2020, and a dozen other blueprints that are gathering dust somewhere. The 2026-2030 policy can be different. But only if someone is watching the implementation clock, and someone else is losing their job when the targets are missed.
What I want to see from NEC going forward is not more approvals and directions to committees. I want timelines. I want named accountable officers for each commitment. I want a public dashboard where Nigerians can track whether the N83.21 billion is being deployed to flood-prone communities before the peak rainy season hits, or whether it is sitting in an account somewhere while people are being displaced. I want ISPS compliance for our six agro-export crops achieved by a specific date, with real consequences if that date passes. Government without accountability is governance theatre.
