“I thought of Napoleon, 1769-1821, who said the word “impossible” does not exist or should not exist” – German philosopher.
After the nomination of former President Goodluck Jonathan as the presidential candidate of a faction of the moribund Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, on May 30, 2026, in Abuja, I am beginning to believe that nothing is impossible in Nigeria’s political wonderland – a place where former inseparable friends become implacable foes; and where past political adversaries embrace eagerly – just on account of changing political parties.
Last week, I got republished an article written in October last year when the ADC was being formed and Jonathan was being tipped as the likely candidate. It was not clear then if Jonathan could legally run for office again. And, in my view, PDP, with its monumental problems, was the last platform on which he would attempt to try again. But, politicians are different from columnists. At any rate, by the time GEJ was cleared by the Supreme Court, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, door was firmly shut against him. So was the Nigerian Democratic Coalition, NDC. Atiku/Amaechi and Obi/Kwakwanso had seized control of ADC and NDC respectively. Perhaps, the PDP remained the only possible game in town – despite the threat of legal action by the Wike faction. In some respects, Jonathan’s re-entry into PDP has already loosened Wike’s grip on his own faction. Some of the die-hard PDP members might find GEJ a more credible leader to follow than Wike’s nominee. The question now is: What can Nigerians expect?
RIGHT NOW A POLITICAL CIRCUS IN PROGRESS
“Idealists in politics lack a sense of reality; and a politician must be a realist above all” – Henry Miller, Vanguard Book of Quotations, VBQ, p 192
There is an amusing circus show going on in Nigerian politics. Obviously, some people actually consider a game for all comers. Candidates emerging from the primaries conducted by most of the parties would suggest that those involved were having fun instead of conducting very serious public business. With few exceptions, the flag-bearers of the parties are so obscure; it is difficult to see how those who selected them can expect them to be taken seriously. The Labour Party illustrates the point. A party, whose candidate came third in 2023, on account of its strong candidate, drove him out; only to replace him with someone almost totally unknown. I never heard of him; and the brief introduction in the media made little difference.
There is turmoil everywhere, with the exception of the APC and NDC, almost all the other parties have produced two presidential candidates, either through comical primaries or by consensus – arranged for candidates allergic to open primaries.
The approach to managing intra-party disputes favoured by President Tinubu – consensus – which has worked well in Lagos State, has hit the hard rock of political reality. Nigeria is not Lagos. Instead of solving problems, it has ignited revolt in many states. Nigerian courts and INEC should brace up for an avalanche of cases arising from the primaries.
The political “Ebola” has extended to candidates for governorship elections. Nigerians must be wondering if those who cannot govern themselves can be expected to govern our country – if elected into office. Opposition political leaders, who one would have thought were intelligent enough to realize that their only chance of unseating Tinubu is to unite and form a solid front, have gone the other way. About six candidates, representing just as many small parties, have emerged. People holding hands and exposing dentures a few weeks ago are now snarling at one another like life-long adversaries.
WHAT EXACTLY IS A POLITICAL PARTY?
“A political party must represent the ideals and aspirations of the people. Otherwise, it is just a mere conspiracy to seize power.” That was one definition of a political party advanced by the late US President Dwight Eisenhower, 1890-1969.
It is not perfect; but, it serves as a point of departure. Questions are raised. Which party now represents the ideals and aspirations of majority of Nigerians? Related to that is the question: Can a politician be member of different political parties and still claim to represent the citizens? The answer to the second question, which is obvious, leads us to the heart of the present Nigerian predicament. We are no longer asked to vote for political parties but organized conspiracies – irrespective of what they stand for. Added to that is what I call personality politics. It is because of personality politics that Jonathan’s entry, if allowed by the courts, has become the major threat to the ambitions of others.
GEJ THREATENS ALL THE OTHERS
“The game-changer forces everybody to alter their plans” – American basketball player.
Buhari’s eight years and Tinubu’s three years have redeemed Jonathan more than APC or anyone could have imagined in 2015. Jonathan lost to Buhari on account of alleged widespread corruption and, most especially, his perceived mismanagement of the abduction of Chibok girls. Because it was unprecedented, Nigerians could not believe their government was so impotent to protect them. Today, as abduction of several citizens, old and young, has become the new normal and annihilation of dozens is the new normal, Jonathan has performed a lot better than Buhari and Tinubu.
By any objective measure, the Nigerian economy was better under Jonathan; and, the nation might have been saved the trauma Nigerians are experiencing if fuel subsidy removal had not been opposed by the “Progressives” when Jonathan proposed it in 2012.
Despite that setback, relevant economic data available for 2012 to 2014 compared with 2023 to 2025 will be extremely difficult for Tinubu to challenge. I will leave them out for now. Jonathan is the only candidate, if he actually runs, who has been there before.
Apart from Tinubu, all the other candidates, except Atiku, will also find it almost impossible to demonstrate their grasp of how the Federal Government works. Depending on how fast they can learn on the job, Obi, Makinde and Donald Duke will spend, at least, their first two years learning how the system works – while inevitably committing blunders; which might be costly for Nigeria.
Atiku might turn out to be the unintended beneficiary of Jonathan’s late entrance into the race. Jonathan has increased the number of Southern candidates by one; but, he would shift the voting pattern more significantly than any other contestant. Bayelsa APC members can forget delivering the state to Tinubu. Ijaws, the fourth or fifth largest ethnic group in Nigeria, will vote overwhelmingly for him; so will Ijaws in Rivers, Delta, Edo and Ondo – as well as elsewhere nationwide. This might be their last chance of occupying Aso Rock. All the Governors of the South-East cannot stop Ndigbo from casting almost all their votes for Obi. The same is true of Igbo voters nationwide. The battle grounds are the remaining states of the South-South and the South-West for the Southern candidates. Tinubu will need more than the support he received from the SW to offset the inevitable losses from the North. Atiku, as the only Northern candidate, already has an enormous advantage in terms of name recognition, vast Northern network and the recent shift of support among Northerners, Fulani in particular, against Tinubu. Increasingly, ethnicity has trumped merit or ability to govern well. The contest is now portrayed as Yoruba versus Fulani; and Northerners are invited to choose. Historical precedents suggest what the answer will be on Election Day – unless vast powers of incumbency can be deployed to alter the course of history.
Again, here is where Jonathan has a chance. If the North decides to allow the South four more years, the safest Southerner is Jonathan. Certainly, nobody believes Peter Obi’s promise to serve only one term – if elected.
MINISTER OF ESTIMATED BILLING CLOBBERED BY ESTIMATED COUNTING
“The evil that men do lives after them…”, said William Shakespeare, 1564-1616. But, that is half of the story about retributions. Sometimes, people are victims of what they nurtured. Candidate Tinubu in the RENEWED HOPE document promised to end estimated billing; page 30. Mr Adelabu was appointed Minister of Power and after almost three years in office, he left Nigerians with estimated billing intact – allowing DISCOs to defraud consumers even worse than when he started. Tariff soared 300 per cent; service delivery remained atrocious.
Despite that disgraceful performance, the fellow had the audacity to want to run for governor of Oyo State on the platform of APC.
If Adelabu thought people can be mocked; God is not mocked. He lost the contest to, what he claims, was over-estimated counting!! God’s judgment was fast.
For more than eleven years, including three under Tinubu, my two-bedroom bungalow in Lagos with only my wife, grand-daughter and me living there was sent estimated bills higher than three-storey buildings on the same street. Letters and petitions to NERC and the Ministry went unanswered – even by Adelabu. I was not alone.
Who cares if Adelabu was rigged out of election? He deserves what he had allowed DISCOs to do to us and more.
God bless all those who participated in the Oyo State APC primaries. I will pray for you forever.
•Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola.
