President Donald Trump faces a crucial political test as millions of Americans vote in the 2026 US midterm elections on Tuesday, with control of Congress, governorships and major policy decisions at stake.
The outcome could determine how much room Trump has to advance his agenda during the final two years of his presidency.
Republicans enter the election controlling both chambers of Congress, but their narrow majorities leave them vulnerable to Democratic gains.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are being contested, while 36 states are electing governors.
According to CBS News, several high-stakes contests across the United States could determine control of Congress and signal public sentiment towards President Donald Trump’s presidency.
In Pennsylvania, four competitive Republican-held House districts could help Democrats secure a majority, while New York’s 17th Congressional District is a key test of Republican efforts to retain the chamber.
In the Senate, closely watched races in Iowa, Georgia, Maine, Texas, Ohio and Michigan could determine which party controls the upper chamber. Meanwhile, California’s redrawn congressional districts could create opportunities for Democratic gains in the House.
Gubernatorial contests in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia are also drawing attention, with potential implications for state policies and the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Ultimately, the results will determine whether Trump retains a supportive Congress or faces stronger Democratic opposition during the final two years of his presidency.
Although Trump is not on the ballot, the midterms are widely viewed as a referendum on his presidency, policies and leadership of the Republican Party.
Here are five things Trump stands to lose if Republicans lose control of Congress.
1. Control Over His Legislative Agenda
One of Trump’s biggest risks is losing the ability to push his legislative priorities through Congress without substantial opposition.
Republicans hold a narrow, three-seat majority in the House, leaving the chamber particularly vulnerable to a small number of Democratic victories. If Democrats secure control, Trump would face a hostile majority capable of blocking or rewriting legislation central to his domestic agenda.
A Democratic-controlled House could complicate efforts to advance Republican priorities on immigration, taxation, federal spending and other issues.
The Senate presents another challenge. Republicans are seeking to defend their 53-47 majority, with several competitive races threatening their position. A Democratic takeover of either chamber would make negotiations more difficult, while control of both would place Trump’s legislative programme under sustained pressure.
Even if Republicans retain one chamber, a divided government could force the president to make concessions to secure bipartisan support for major bills.
2. Protection From Congressional Investigations
A Democratic takeover of the House could expose the Trump administration to more aggressive congressional oversight.
House committees possess powers to investigate executive branch decisions, summon witnesses, demand documents and hold hearings on government policies and conduct. A change in party control would allow Democrats to set committee agendas and determine which issues receive sustained scrutiny.
For Trump, losing the House could therefore mean losing an important congressional shield against sustained scrutiny.
3. Greater Difficulty Controlling Federal Spending and Tax Policy
Control of Congress is particularly important because lawmakers determine federal appropriations and must approve major tax legislation.
A Democratic majority could challenge Trump’s spending priorities, seek changes to funding proposals and resist measures it considers too costly or inconsistent with its policy objectives.
4. Influence Over Judicial and Executive Appointments
The Senate’s role in confirming presidential nominees makes its control especially significant for Trump.
Under the US Constitution, the Senate provides advice and consent on federal judicial nominations and many senior executive appointments. A Republican majority gives the president a more favourable environment for securing confirmations, subject to the Senate’s rules and the requirements applicable to individual nominations.
If Democrats take control of the chamber, they could delay hearings, scrutinise nominees more aggressively and make confirmation of controversial candidates more difficult.
A Democratic Senate would not automatically reject every Trump nominee, but it could significantly increase the political cost of securing confirmations.
5. Political Leverage Ahead Of 2028 And The Risk Of Impeachment
A Republican defeat would weaken Trump’s influence over Congress and potentially complicate his efforts to shape the party’s future leadership.
Midterm results often influence perceptions of a president’s popularity, political authority and ability to mobilise voters. Significant Republican losses could intensify internal party disagreements over strategy, policy and the direction of the movement ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Republican lawmakers in competitive districts could become less willing to support unpopular administration proposals if they believe doing so threatens their re-election prospects.
A Democratic-controlled House could also pursue impeachment proceedings if its members believed there were grounds to do so.
The House has the constitutional authority to impeach a president by a simple majority, while conviction and removal require a two-thirds majority of senators present.
A Democratic House would not make impeachment inevitable, and losing Congress would not remove Trump from office. However, it could expose him to a more confrontational political environment and weaken his ability to keep Republican lawmakers aligned behind him.
Ultimately, the midterms could determine whether Trump enters the final two years of his presidency with a supportive Congress or faces a legislature prepared to challenge his administration at every turn.
