Adedayo Olalekan
As Nigeria moves steadily towards the 2027 presidential election, the defining question may no longer be who has the deepest political network or the longest résumé. Increasingly, it is becoming a question of trust.
After years of corruption scandals, economic hardship, worsening insecurity and unfulfilled promises, many Nigerians appear more interested in judging those seeking power by the public perception of how they have exercised it than by what they promise to do if elected. In that conversation, the four most visible presidential figures—President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Prince Adewole Adebayo—offer voters four very different political propositions.
The incumbent, President Tinubu, has one undeniable advantage: a record in office. He will ask Nigerians to renew their confidence based on reforms his administration says are laying the foundation for long-term economic recovery. The removal of fuel subsidy, foreign exchange reforms and tax changes have been presented as difficult but necessary decisions to rebuild the economy.
Yet, for many ordinary Nigerians, those reforms have come at enormous personal cost. Inflation has remained high, food prices have soared, the naira has weakened considerably and the cost of living continues to stretch households and businesses alike. While government officials point to improving macroeconomic indicators and growing investor confidence, many citizens say those gains have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in their daily lives.
Security presents an equally difficult political test. Although the government maintains that security agencies have recorded significant operational successes, banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and violent attacks continue to affect communities across different parts of the country. Whether Nigerians believe the administration has done enough to justify another term may become one of the central questions of the election.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar brings perhaps the deepest political experience in the race, having sought the presidency repeatedly since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. His supporters describe him as an experienced administrator and successful businessman whose years in public life have prepared him for the nation’s highest office.
But public perception continues to be influenced by corruption allegations that have followed him for decades, including scrutiny arising from a 2010 United States Senate subcommittee inquiry into suspicious financial transfers involving a business associate. Atiku has consistently denied wrongdoing and has never been convicted of corruption by any Nigerian court. Even so, in a country where corruption remains one of the public’s greatest concerns, perception often carries political weight beyond legal outcomes.
Peter Obi enters the race with a reputation built on fiscal discipline during his years as governor of Anambra State. Admirers point to prudent financial management, debt reduction and responsible governance as evidence of his competence. Critics, however, argue that excessive emphasis on savings sometimes came at the expense of investment in education, healthcare and infrastructure. They cite industrial disputes involving teachers and health workers, alongside claims that government resources were not deployed quickly enough to address pressing developmental needs. Obi and his supporters reject that assessment, insisting that his administration combined financial responsibility with sustainable development.
The debate surrounding his record is therefore less about allegations of corruption than about competing views of what constitutes effective governance.
Standing apart from all three is Prince Adewole Adebayo.
Unlike the other leading contenders, Adebayo has never occupied elective office, supervised public procurement or controlled government budgets. He comes into the race as a lawyer, businessman, political activist and media entrepreneur whose public image has not been shaped by executive power. To supporters, that is precisely his greatest strength. They argue that after decades of alternating between familiar political figures, Nigerians deserve an opportunity to entrust leadership to someone without the baggage associated with government office. His critics, however, contend that a clean record outside government is not the same as proven competence in managing one of Africa’s most complex nations.
Adebayo himself frames the choice differently. “I am not an enemy of any politician. I am an enemy of corruption, injustice, unaccountability and autocracy,” he has repeatedly declared. His campaign is built less on defending a governing record than on advancing ideas—industrialisation, education, healthcare, constitutional reform, accountable leadership and stronger institutions. Since emerging as the SDP’s presidential candidate, he has argued consistently that Nigeria’s crisis is rooted not in a shortage of resources but in the quality of leadership and governance.
Ultimately, the 2027 presidential election may become a referendum on records rather than rhetoric. Tinubu will ask Nigerians to judge him by reforms whose benefits, his administration insists, are only beginning to emerge.
Atiku will ask voters to look beyond decades of allegations he firmly denies and focus instead on his experience. Obi will ask the electorate to see fiscal discipline as evidence of responsible leadership despite continuing debates about his developmental record.
Adebayo, by contrast, asks Nigerians to do something different altogether: to judge him not by what he did with public power, but by the fact that he has never had the opportunity to misuse it. Whether that blank slate is seen as integrity or inexperience may well determine whether Nigeria chooses continuity, familiarity or a genuinely different path in 2027.
A Note on the Record
Public perception does not always reflect legal findings. President Tinubu maintains that his administration’s reforms require time to deliver lasting benefits and points to improving economic indicators and ongoing security operations as evidence of progress. Atiku Abubakar has consistently denied corruption allegations and has not been convicted of corruption by any court. Peter Obi rejects criticisms of his administration, maintaining that his tenure was marked by prudent financial management and measurable development.
Their supporters continue to defend those records vigorously. The case for Adewole Adebayo therefore rests less on settling those competing narratives than on a broader political question facing the electorate: after decades of judging leaders by the records they accumulated in office, are Nigerians prepared to entrust the presidency to a candidate whose greatest political asset is that he has no executive record to defend?
* Mr. Olalekan, a public affairs analyst, writes from Ondo, Ondo State
