President faces 13 opponents from South, 2 from North
With the conclusion of party primaries last weekend, no fewer than 15 presidential candidates from different political parties have emerged to challenge President Bola Tinubu at the ballot in 2027.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed Saturday, 16 January 2027, for the presidential election.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has nominated Tinubu again to seek re-election in next year’s polls at its nationwide presidential primary held on 23 May 2026.
Tinubu was reported to have polled 10.99 million votes to defeat his only rival, Osifo Stanley, who scored 16,503 votes in the primary election held across 8,809 wards nationwide.
Opposition parties have also chosen their flagbearers for the contest.
The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) adopted President Tinubu as its presidential candidate for the 2027 general elections.
In the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the faction led by former Senate President David Mark announced former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate after he defeated two others: former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi and Kano businessman and economist Mohammed Hayatu-Deen.
Dumebi Kachikwu emerged as the presidential candidate of another ADC faction, while a faction led by Bala Gombe announced Chris Uba as its sole presidential candidate.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) announced that the Nyesom Wike-backed faction has selected Senator Sandy Onor as its presidential candidate. In contrast, the Kabiru Turaki-led faction affirmed former President Goodluck Jonathan as its 2027 presidential flagbearer.
On its part, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) nominated former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi as its presidential candidate for the 2027 general elections, following his emergence as the sole aspirant for the party’s presidential ticket.
The Labour Party (LP) faction led by Julius Abure adopted the party’s national youth leader, Kennedy Ahanotu, as its presidential candidate for the 2027 elections, while the Nenadi Usman camp announced Dr Chibuzo Okereke as its consensus presidential flagbearer.
Similarly, the Sadiq Abubakar Gombe faction of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) nominated Adewole Adebayo as its presidential candidate. In contrast, the faction led by Shehu Gabam announced Abimbola Akeem Atanda as its flagbearer.
For its part, the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) has Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde as its presidential candidate. At the same time, the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) nominated former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke as its flagbearer for the 2027 polls.
The Action Democratic Party (ADP) named Aliyu Bin Abbas, a former political aide to Atiku Abubakar, as its candidate, while activist Omoyele Sowore secured the African Action Congress’ (AAC) ticket.
The Young Progressives Party (YPP) fielded the only female candidate in the race, adopting Anita Zugwai-Chukwu as its presidential candidate for next year’s poll.
The emergence of multiple presidential candidates in some political parties highlights internal conflicts within their ranks in the build-up to the 2027 general elections.
With the primaries concluded, several parties are facing pending legal battles over their machinery and structure, potentially heading into the campaigns—and perhaps the election—as divided houses.
The list of presidential candidates across opposition parties shows a large number from the southern region, with 17 out of the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
In the northern region, comprising 19 states including the FCT, there are only two presidential candidates: Atiku of the ADC and Aliyu Abbas of the Action Democratic Party (ADP).
This followed the national leadership of the Accord Party’s decision to disown Dr Gbenga Hashim as its presidential candidate for the 2027 general election.
The party insisted that it neither had a presidential aspirant within its approved timetable nor conducted a presidential primary.
It said the party’s national leadership did not organise the purported presidential primary in which Hashim reportedly emerged, and therefore it has no legal or political effect.
In a statement by Accord Party national chairman Maxwell Mgbudem, the party described the event as a “fanfare by his supporters” that should not be mistaken for an official party primary.
Consequently, Tinubu is facing 13 presidential candidates from the South and 2 from the North.
According to the results of the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu scored 8.7 million votes to defeat Atiku (North) of the PDP, who garnered 6.9 million votes, followed by Obi (South) of the LP with 6.1 million, and Rabiu Kwankwaso (North) of the NNPP, who polled 1.4 million votes.
Speaking on the development, a political science lecturer at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Dr Christian Okeke, said that despite the crowded field, a southern presidential candidate would still likely emerge victorious, as the two northern candidates do not appear to have sufficient national appeal to win.
He noted that the remaining southern candidates are unlikely to spring any surprises.
The political scientist stated that the race is between President Tinubu, backed by the state apparatus, and Obi/Kwankwaso and their followers.
He said: “The northern voters will not approach the election from a regional perspective. To a large extent, it is going to be a struggle between the financial power or, if you like, the inducement capability of the ruling party and the cult followership of Obi and Kwankwaso.
“The rest of the candidates from the South will not spring any surprises. I am convinced that it is going to be a struggle between Tinubu and Obi, regardless of the number of candidates from the South,” Okeke stated.
For her part, a former national chairman of the Youth Democratic Party (YDP), Georgina Dakpokpo, said that, as in previous elections, votes from parties without major candidates are unlikely to have much impact on the overall outcome, meaning the proliferation of southern candidates may not necessarily alter the trajectory.
The former deputy secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), however, said insecurity and economic hardship in the North may influence voting patterns.
“…The insecurity, poverty and suffering of Nigerians, particularly in the northern states, is going to make northerners more cautious about who they vote for in the coming elections.
“They voted in the last election for a particular candidate who emerged as the winner, and insecurity became worse in that part of the country.
“So, as it is, they will want to vote for someone they believe can protect them and improve security in the country,” she said.
The former secretary-general of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) noted that the odds may favour Atiku as the main northern candidate.
“As it is, it’s only Atiku because the Accord Party has disowned Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim. I heard there is another northern candidate who is supposedly a former aide to Atiku Abubakar, so you can imagine what that entails. He is probably there in support of Atiku,” she said.
Dakpokpo expressed regret that opposition parties are unable to work together in Nigeria’s interest, instead prioritising personal interests.
“So that is, for me, more of a concern than whether there are southern or northern candidates. It is still a sad story for Nigerians because there is no guarantee that whoever voters favour in the 2027 election will be best for Nigerians.
“So there is a lot of strategy going on behind the scenes. And the most favoured candidates, as it is, to the ordinary man, may not emerge as the winner, unfortunately.
“This election may favour Atiku not because he has done anything special, not because of strategy, but because of personal interests,” she said.
The executive director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and head of Transparency International (TI) Nigeria, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, noted that Tinubu remains a prominent southern candidate and incumbent president.
He admitted that multiple southern contenders could fragment the traditional southern voting bloc that played a significant role in Tinubu’s 2023 victory.
“Historically, regional identity has played an important role in Nigeria’s electoral politics. However, voting behaviour is increasingly influenced by economic conditions, security concerns, governance performance, and perceptions of leadership competence.
“Therefore, the assumption that southern voters will automatically rally behind one southern candidate may not necessarily hold in 2027,” he said.
He explained that the presence of several southern candidates could affect Tinubu in three main ways:
“First, it may divide votes in key southern states, particularly among dissatisfied voters or those seeking alternative political platforms. If opposition candidates mobilise support around governance and economic issues rather than regional identity, Tinubu could face stronger competition in parts of the South than in previous elections.
“Second, fragmentation of southern votes could create opportunities for northern candidates to become more competitive nationally. If northern candidates consolidate support in the North while southern voters split among multiple contenders, they may improve their national vote share.
“Third, coalition-building and strategic alliances will likely become more important than regional origin. Nigeria’s electoral system requires not only a plurality of votes but also a spread across regions. Candidates who build cross-regional alliances may have an advantage.”
Rafsanjani, however, said it would be premature to conclude that multiple southern candidates automatically strengthen northern contenders.
“Much will depend on the ability of candidates to sustain campaigns, build national structures, communicate clearly, and maintain voter confidence. History has shown that candidates often negotiate alliances or withdraw from the race closer to election day.
“From a democratic governance perspective, CISLAC believes that the quality of the electoral process, issue-based campaigns, transparency in party primaries, and voter confidence in electoral institutions are more critical determinants than regional calculations alone.
“Ultimately, the 2027 election should allow Nigerians to assess candidates based on records, policy proposals, and capacity to address insecurity, economic hardship, corruption, and governance challenges,” he added.
A political analyst, Sylvanus Udoenoh, said the emergence of a crowded presidential field dominated by southern candidates would alter electoral arithmetic ahead of the 2027 elections, but would not automatically weaken President Bola Tinubu.
Udoenoh, executive director of the CREAP Africa Initiative, said Nigerian presidential elections are won not merely by regional identity but by the ability to build broad coalitions across geopolitical zones.
He noted that while multiple southern candidates may split votes in parts of the South-West, South-South and South-East, Tinubu still retains advantages as incumbent president, including visibility, access to state structures, and an established political network.
He said the southern vote may become further fragmented if opposition candidates fail to form strategic alliances.
He added that in 2023, the southern vote was already divided among Tinubu, Peter Obi and others.
“A repeat of such fragmentation could allow Tinubu to remain competitive in his strongholds while securing enough votes elsewhere to offset losses.
“However, much will depend on public perception of the administration’s performance on inflation, cost of living, employment, security, and economic reforms as campaigns intensify,” he said.
The CREAP Africa Initiative argued that for northern candidates, particularly Atiku, a divided southern field presents an opportunity but not a guarantee.
“The North remains Nigeria’s largest voting bloc, and if a northern candidate consolidates support across the North-West, North-East and parts of the North-Central while making inroads into selected southern states, the contest could become highly competitive. However, northern votes are not monolithic.
“The APC still enjoys strong structures and influential allies across several northern states, meaning neither Atiku nor any northern candidate can assume automatic regional support.
“Ultimately, the 2027 election is shaping up to be less about geography alone and more about coalition-building, voter turnout and perceptions of governance. The key question is not the number of southern or northern candidates, but which candidate can transcend regional identity and present a compelling national agenda.
“If opposition candidates remain fragmented while the APC maintains a relatively unified structure, Tinubu could benefit from vote splitting.
“Conversely, if opposition forces consolidate around a credible alternative, the electoral landscape could shift significantly. At this stage, the race remains open and will depend on political alignments, campaign dynamics and voter sentiment,” he added.
